{"id":4282,"date":"2017-12-12T14:09:15","date_gmt":"2017-12-12T16:09:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bmj.com.br\/?p=4282"},"modified":"2017-12-12T14:09:15","modified_gmt":"2017-12-12T16:09:15","slug":"no-miracle-for-brazil-as-closed-economy-saps-exports-potential","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bmj.com.br\/es\/no-miracle-for-brazil-as-closed-economy-saps-exports-potential\/","title":{"rendered":"‘No miracle’ for Brazil as closed economy saps exports potential"},"content":{"rendered":"

Brazil\u00a0is largely missing out on improving global growth prospects as Latin America\u2019s largest economy remains one of the most insular in the world.<\/p>\n

Brazil\u2019s exports have risen 20 percent year to date versus the same period in 2016, and the government last month increased its forecast trade surplus to between $65 billion and $70 billion in 2017, up from previously $60 billion. Still, exports account for about 12.5 percent of gross domestic product, a ratio that has barely budged in recent years and that is about half that of countries such as Russia and Chile, and one-third of Mexico\u2019s, according to the World Bank.<\/p>\n

Years of government policies betting on Brazil\u2019s huge domestic market coupled with protectionist measures, red tape and infrastructure bottlenecks have turned the country into the most closed emerging market economy,\u00a0according<\/a>\u00a0to Credit Suisse. While that relative isolation has worked in favor of the country during the global crisis of 2008, it is slowing its economic recovery now.<\/div>\n
\n“There are no miracles, and there\u2019s no magic,” Otaviano Canuto, executive director at the World Bank, said in a phone interview. Brazil will “take less advantage of global economic growth than it should because of how closed the economy is.”<\/div>\n
\nAs an example, Brazil imposes an average tariff of 8.8 percent on all of its imports, compared to 0.6 percent in Chile and 1.6 percent in the U.S., World Bank data\u00a0show<\/a>. Brazil also ranks 139th out of 190 countries on the ease of trading across borders, according to the World Bank\u2019s latest Ease of Doing Business rankings, which also showed that export costs from main hubs of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are roughly double the Latin American average.<\/div>\n

Missing Out<\/h3>\n

The International Monetary Fund\u00a0boosted<\/a>\u00a0its global growth forecasts for this year and next, driven in part by a brighter outlook in the U.S. and China, Brazil\u2019s top two trade partners. On the other hand, the IMF expects Brazil to grow at\u00a0less than half<\/a>\u00a0the global pace this year and next.<\/p>\n

Brazil\u2019s trade ministry says that, aside from seeking new\u00a0trade deals<\/a>, it is providing assistance to small and medium-sized firms looking to expand sales abroad and centralizing export authorizations through an electronic portal. Data showing the number of companies exporting from Brazil reached a record in September is proof that the strategy is working,\u00a0Foreign Trade Secretary Abrao Neto said in an interview.<\/p>\n

“This increase has contributed in a fundamental way to the recovery of the country\u2019s economic growth, and should continue next year,”\u00a0he said. “The effects of the government initiatives will certainly allow Brazil to better take advantage of any increase in global trade and economic growth.”<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, trade talks between Mercosur and the EU, which started in 1999, are running into new roadblocks such as food safety standards raised by the French, a Brazilian government official with knowledge of the discussions told Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

Brazil\u2019s traditional focus on its gigantic domestic market will continue to be a barrier to exports, said Welber Barral, a\u00a0former secretary of foreign trade. Economists\u00a0expect<\/a>\u00a0GDP growth to more than triple next year, and rising demand at home may discourage local companies from seeking new sales opportunities abroad.<\/p>\n

“Exporting is only a choice when local consumption is in crisis,” Barral said in an interview. “When that consumption bounces back, exporters prefer local markets.”<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Brazil\u00a0is largely missing out on improving global growth prospects as Latin America\u2019s largest economy remains one of the most insular in the world. 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