{"id":4676,"date":"2018-04-02T11:47:13","date_gmt":"2018-04-02T14:47:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bmj.com.br\/?p=4676"},"modified":"2018-04-02T11:50:07","modified_gmt":"2018-04-02T14:50:07","slug":"4676","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bmj.com.br\/es\/4676\/","title":{"rendered":"Agora \u00e9 bem prov\u00e1vel que Lula estar\u00e1 fora das elei\u00e7\u00f5es de 2018, afirma analista pol\u00edtico"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"

Roberto Parizotti\/CUT<\/p><\/div>\n

O PT deve registrar outro candidato, provavelmente Jaques Wagner ou Fernando Haddad, mas eles s\u00e3o bem menos competitivos, aponta Juliano Griebeler, da Barral M. Jorge<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

O pior dos cen\u00e1rios parece ter se desenhado para o ex-presidente Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva nesta quarta-feira (24). Al\u00e9m de sua condena\u00e7\u00e3o ter sido confirmada em segunda inst\u00e2ncia pelo TRF-4 (Tribunal Regional Federal) da 4\u00aa Regi\u00e3o de Porto Alegre, os tr\u00eas integrantes da 8\u00aa turma do Tribunal votaram pelo aumento da pena em 12 anos e 1 m\u00eas.<\/p>\n

Com isso, a decis\u00e3o un\u00e2nime reduz possibilidades do recurso de Lula. O \u00fanico recurso dispon\u00edvel s\u00e3o os chamados “embargos de declara\u00e7\u00e3o”, que n\u00e3o permitem reverter a condena\u00e7\u00e3o. Esse recurso somente admite o esclarecimento de ambiguidades, pontos obscuros, contradi\u00e7\u00f5es ou omiss\u00f5es no ac\u00f3rd\u00e3o (documento que oficializa a decis\u00e3o).<\/p>\n

Para o diretor de Rela\u00e7\u00f5es Governamentais da Barral M Jorge, Juliano Griebeler<\/a>, embora n\u00e3o seja o fim da candidatura de Lula, \u00e9 altamente improv\u00e1vel que o ex-presidente e n\u00e3o esteja presente nas elei\u00e7\u00f5es, apesar de haver recursos para que isso ocorra.<\/p>\n

“O PT deve registrar outro candidato, provavelmente o ex-governador da Bahia Jaques Wagner ou ex-prefeito de S\u00e3o Paulo Fernando Haddad”, afirma o analista pol\u00edtico. Contudo, aponta, ambos s\u00e3o muito menos competitivos do que o ex-presidente e n\u00e3o atra\u00edram tantas alian\u00e7as regionais com outros partidos.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, afirma, sem Lula, a tend\u00eancia \u00e9 que o PT tenha uma grande redu\u00e7\u00e3o no n\u00famero de cadeiras no Congresso Nacional. “O PT perdeu uma grande parte de sua capacidade de mobiliza\u00e7\u00e3o popular e as manifesta\u00e7\u00f5es dificilmente atra\u00edram um p\u00fablico extremamente grande” destaca Griebeler.<\/p>\n

De qualquer forma, o momento mais delicado ser\u00e1, caso ocorra, o de se cumprir a senten\u00e7a e prender o ex-presidente.<\/p>\n

E na economia, quais s\u00e3o os efeitos? Griebeler aponta que a decis\u00e3o trata um otimismo tempor\u00e1rio, mas n\u00e3o deve ter influ\u00eancia no longo prazo. Afinal, ainda h\u00e1 muitos desafios a serem enfrentados: “o governo ainda precisa aprovar v\u00e1rias propostas no Congresso Nacional para alcan\u00e7ar o d\u00e9ficit previsto para 2018. O principal desafio ser\u00e1 a aprova\u00e7\u00e3o da Reforma da Previd\u00eancia.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O PT deve registrar outro candidato, provavelmente Jaques Wagner ou Fernando Haddad, mas eles s\u00e3o bem menos competitivos, aponta Juliano Griebeler, da Barral M. Jorge   O pior dos cen\u00e1rios…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":4677,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[511,245,546,520,370,524,512,168,510,560,559,203],"class_list":{"0":"post-4676","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-relacoes-governamentais","8":"tag-barral-m-jorge","9":"tag-condenacao-de-lula","10":"tag-eleicao","11":"tag-eleicoes","12":"tag-eleicoes-2018","13":"tag-governo","14":"tag-infomoney","15":"tag-juliano-griebeler","16":"tag-lula","17":"tag-segunda-instancia","18":"tag-stf","19":"tag-temer"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAgora \u00e9 bem prov\u00e1vel que Lula estar\u00e1 fora das elei\u00e7\u00f5es de 2018, afirma analista pol\u00edtico - 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